In our opinion, the near future in the automotive sector can already be guessed at. At the moment there are big problems in being able to deliver at all. But the market doesn't groan, it acts. On average, vehicles in Germany have always been changed far too early.

As previous crises have already shown, the average car ownership period will then generally be longer, with it of course also prolongates the switch to electromobility. At the moment one has the impression that everything is being done in favor of them. So if new, then please an electric car.

How can you tell? First of all, the fuel prices, which are obviously difficult to bring down again. Not only the greed for profit plays a role here, because at least in the current crisis there will certainly be a lower need for fuel.

In addition, the gas stations may hear their death bells ringing in the long run, at least the part responsible for fuel.The question remains whether it can be switched over so easily in relation to the locations. After all, there is a lot of unaccostomed competition just from charging at home.

But the independent workshops shouldn't expand their capacities, which are in great demand at the moment, too much. At some point, the then almost exclusively available electric cars will become cheaper again, as will their parts such as the batteries. And because of the much longer warranty, the new cars will come to you later. The need for repairs is also significantly lower.

It's already evil for all the suppliers. They are crowding to pork barrels that have become significantly smaller. Who is still interested in a ten-speed fully automatic? How fast will the market for turbocharger shrink? How is the repair of brakes evolving? What is happening to the legions of engine oils?

Some are clever, persuading the politics to replace the usual measurement of turbidity by counting particles. A cleared particle filter can also be determined by measuring the turbidity, and such a filter does not let too many particles through anyway, and rather responds with clogging.

But you can offer workshops a new product and politicians will do the rest to declare this as mandatory from Euro 6 onwards. Ultimately, of course, the costs are passed on to consumers, and emissions tests within TÜV demonstrations are even more expensive.

Are there still really independent experts in Germany who could be consulted by politicians? But you can offer workshops a new product and politicians will do the rest to declare this as mandatory from Euro 6 onwards.

Ultimately, of course, the costs are passed on to consumers, and emissions tests within the TÜV technical safety inspection become even more expensive. Are there still really independent experts in Germany who could be consulted by politicians?

You can see that the batteries are making progress by looking at the heavy goods vehicles. From 2024 Man announces a semitrailer tractor with a range of 600 to 800 km, and Mercedes, by the way, no less. If you take the slightly outdated battery values of the Audi etron, 90 kWh would probably weigh around 700 kg.

With a range of 600 km and 100 kWh/100 km, that would be 600 times 70 divided by 90, i.e. almost 4.7 t. Can't be in terms of weight and volume. So you can guess how much the efficiency of batteries is currently improving so that MAN and Mercedes can keep their promises. Under no circumstances will they end up with more than 3.5 t and the corresponding size.

At some point, an engineer explained to us that there were guidelines for many research areas that you can work your way along, a kind of 5 or 10 year plan. And that also applies to the development work on batteries. What appears to us laypeople as completely unplannable is, albeit with small dry spells and jumps, but plannable overall.