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 Too many people?
| Turn the steering wheel yourself - will that soon only be possible on a simulator? |
There are simply too many people, for example, in cities above a certain size. More importantly, the trend seems virtually unstoppable. And if people can't afford to live there because rents are too high,
traffic naturally increases. Yet the appeal of the big city remains undiminished, driven by the growth of service-sector jobs as a source of employment and by the greater amount of leisure time available to
shape one's life. There's just always something going on, no matter what time of day or night it is.
No matter how much you tinker with traffic light sequences and shut down internal combustion engines during the red phase, when viewed from above - especially during rush hour - the overall flow of traffic
doesn’t look very elegant; rather, it appears outdated and incompatible with today’s standard technology. When so many people crowd together, they do end up paying the price of conformity to some extent,
not necessarily in their free time, but in other aspects of their lives.
It's just like all those curves on country roads that we used to race through at more than a reasonable speed, until some idiots got into accidents. Since then, the fun is over, thanks to the speed limit.
If you want to feel free to seek out adventure, you have to travel to areas where few people go; however, you’ll also have significantly less protection in the event of accidents or illness.
So, there will likely be regulations in place wherever there is even the slightest risk of disruptions to traffic flow. Everyone in uniform step. For a long time, traffic lights were programmed so that drivers turning left had the
same green phases as those going straight. However, since serious accidents are more likely to occur when turning left, separate phases have been introduced. Now everyone will have to wait a bit longer.
In terms of city traffic, that would mean there probably won't be any traffic jams, but traffic will still move more slowly, even during times when traffic is usually light. Just look at how little a Tesla makes use of its tremendous
acceleration when pulling away autonomously while waiting in line at a traffic light. IIt feels like it’s keeping far too much distance. It's going to get more boring. But even on today's highways, you can only
get a limited sense of the surrounding area. Even in places where there are no noise barriers, the landscape looks pretty much the same, with the possible exception of the Alps.
Autonomous driving, which would also be possible and desirable on sections of the highway prone to traffic jams, thus shifts the focus even more inward. Even before truly autonomous driving becomes a
reality, people seem to be thinking a lot about how they'll spend their time in self-driving cars. New companies from the digital sector are now entering the market for suppliers. Established players, such as the three major
companies, Continental, Bosch, and ZF, are noticeably nervous in this field now.
There will be competitive displacement, especially when you consider the many small and medium-sized businesses. Like electric cars, autonomous cars have much less traditional hardware on board, but
they rely on a lot more software. This is an opportunity for smaller companies as well, but will probably be used more by start-ups than by traditional medium-sized businesses.
There are examples from the past of successful production transitions. For example, for decades Pierburg was a supplier of a particularly wide variety of sophisticated carburetor types known as
'Solex'. Then, suddenly, the almost immediate switch to injection systems, a move previously considered scarcely possible. The word 'comprehensive' is particularly important here. One could see the need, but
couldn't imagine such a rapid transition.
The carburetor suddenly disappeared from the market, but Pierburg managed to stay afloat with new products. However, that hardware was also related to the internal combustion engine, whereas the shift from
hardware to software also placed significantly different demands on large parts of the workforce. In addition, the much-cited decentralization, for example, in energy supply, cannot be sustained. After all, where should the
computing power required outside the vehicles be installed?
That's where the big players come into play again, for example, those who are currently vying for a new wireless standard. Only they, for example, have the cellular network, whose masts could accommodate such a device,
which is, of course, largely standardized. And just as Here is one of the few companies capable of providing highly accurate topographic maps, the ability to offer connectivity will likely be limited to large providers with
a mobile network behind them.
Which brings us to smartphone control, which makes sense anyway when traditional controls aren't available or aren't intended to be used. They are certainly smart enough to function with external assistance, which of
course includes potential cloud services. This turns the smartphone into a desktop, what used to be called a writing desk, where you can continue working without any interruption even after you arrive at your workplace.
You can already see that today. When you receive a work email at 8 p.m. on a Friday, you know full well that it probably wasn't written at the office, but was sent from home. It could then be sent out a little earlier, which might
save the after-work hours. The question "Where are you?" will also become increasingly important for potential video conferences.
“Wait a minute, I'll have to check that first, because I haven't looked outside for a while. Somewhere between . . .” Of course, you can also use all or part of this newly gained time for personal purposes, such as using and
interacting on social media. Or watch the movie I missed last night. Of course, it would be more convenient with a larger screen, which the vehicle might provide.
People have gotten used to driving safely. At first, one was skeptical. Autonomous driving has now surpassed airplanes as the safest mode of transportation, even though airplanes also fly autonomously. We're glad
that mixed traffic with only partially autonomous cars is a thing of the past. The advantage of Zero Null became all too clear in the case of serious accidents.
'Car2Car' and 'Car2X' have been replaced by 'Vehicle2Everything'. Google, too, has abandoned its plans to manufacture its own cars. You earn a lot more by running the network. The manufacturers that were unable to gain
a foothold here have themselves become suppliers to the network operators. After all, when buying toothpaste, you pay less attention to the packaging than to the contents, especially since all tubes look the same except
for the labeling.
The trend that cars are looking more and more alike will therefore continue. And in case you haven't noticed yet, the consolidation into fewer car manufacturers is well underway. Opel is owned by PSA; Ford may be
stopping its operations in Europe. Anyone familiar with Ford’s longstanding ties to a wide variety of British companies - even helping to launch and build them up - understands the magnitude of such a radical change.
In Germany, only one or two highways are currently being prepared for the new digital world on a trial basis. At the same time, the problems may be even more pressing in large cities, for example. After all, packages aren't
delivered or returned on highways, trash cans aren't emptied, and entire department stores aren't restocked there. There, people are increasingly considering electric vehicles for distribution transport so they can make
deliveries at night as well, but perhaps autonomous vehicles would be an even more elegant solution.
And if the cities don't come forward on their own, they'll receive a brief message from one of these powerful network operators, and any city that fails to respond will simply remain mired in traffic caused by drivers searching
for parking spots and traffic jams. And what does the slightly less stressed, wealthier citizen do during the week? On the weekend, he or she takes the meticulously maintained 911 S out of the garage and looks forward to
nothing more than winding country roads. There, and on highways where traffic jams are unlikely (picture above), the car is still allowed to . . .
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