 Distribution
There are people who envision a future where we’re surrounded by transportation options and swear up and down that private car ownership won’t be around much longer. Well, if you compare it to
the past, the car has lost much of its significance as a member of the family. Loving care has been replaced by a car wash atmosphere.
But could the car dealership really disappear? Is direct shipping the only option left, if cars are even sold to private buyers at all? No more sales conversations where the customer
sometimes shares a few more stories about his/her life with cars. Not even a bottle of champagne or a photo at the handover?
Transportation requests are submitted anonymously and handled accordingly. Of course, you experience this kind of thing with budget airlines, along with the anxiety of making sure you get back on time.
People would then, in theory, be able to afford even more transportation than they can today, given current car costs. If you book smart, you can already travel by train for twice the price of diesel fuel. That is
significantly less than the real travel costs.
And then there's the incredible speed of development. Since the deregulation of long-distance bus transport in 2013, Flixbus had already captured more than 90 percent of the market share in Germany by the
end of 2016. Yet the company doesn't own a single bus. It is true that automakers now manufacture just under 30 percent of a vehicle themselves. Haven't they already become a full-service mobility provider
with all the bells and whistles?
On the other hand, one could raise another unpleasant suspicion: namely, that people don’t really know what to do with their free time. When someone retires, he/she first enjoys his retirement; maybe he’ll
stick with it for a year. Then, driven by a certain restlessness, he or she may even find himself returning partly to his old profession or a similar line of work. Of course, some people have such
a small pension that they have to earn extra money.
It is argued that society has plenty of opportunities for people who want to get involved. But strangely enough, it is still far too rarely, for example, unemployed people with plenty of time, but rather perhaps even
employed people with less time. People who feel they have their lives firmly under control are more likely to take on additional tasks. Of course, these statements shouldn't be generalized.
But there are also many people who haven't learned enough in life to do something meaningful with themselves. In the past, and to some extent even today, it was club life. It's great when people get involved
from a young age, for example, by joining the volunteer fire department. But those are the kinds of things you typically do when you live in the countryside. But isn't this very group of people actually declining in
number these days?
Perhaps we’re doing the typical young driver an injustice when we claim that he or she races home if that’s even possible given today’s traffic conditions, and then sits on the couch, not knowing
what to do with himself or herself. How will smartphone communication evolve? Does it still seem like just a fad right now, but will it eventually die down just as quickly to a reasonable level?
No, you won't be able to take away the last non-virtual things people have. Even public transportation, despite its popularity, has its fair share of problems. Who actually takes the city bus into town just for
fun? Who wouldn’t prefer to ride alone on public transportation or choose their own fellow passengers? None of the products currently available for various uses have really caught on yet.
Only the bare essentials are lent out. Who hasn't had a bad experience with renting something at some point? A lot of what’s rented out professionally is also surprisingly new. One wonders where it is if it
shows signs of wear. Some rental stores turn out to be disguised outlet stores.
If people have the means, owning a home with a garden remains their top priority, even though it is actually unsustainable in terms of land use and resource consumption. Admittedly, urbanization does
work against it to some extent, but only because very few people here can afford an apartment, let alone a condominium. Such a desire for property doesn't necessarily have anything to do with retirement
planning, but rather with the fact that as people become more affluent, they become more headstrong, for better or for worse.
We have already suggested in this book that fully autonomous transportation will exist only within certain city limits. Diesel drivers will put up with being barred from cities only when other cars are barred as
well, when there is simply no other option in an increasingly densely built-up city.
But out there, most drivers will fight tooth and nail to defend their enjoyment. If necessary, they will become protest voters. It won't happen that quickly, that grandpa tells his grandchildren without a driver's
license that in his youth he used to speed along country roads, almost completely free to choose his own pace, and even elegantly cut some curves with a clear view of the road ahead, although it was
forbidden.
Floating over the city in an airship, delivering packages automatically by drone right to your doorstep. That reminds me of the fridge that’s on backorder, the one we’ve been waiting for for a
while now, and which probably very few people actually want. We will maintain our mix of transportation modes with some adjustments, not because the industry cannot adapt quickly enough,
but because that is what consumers want.
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