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 Real-life example
It's amazing that there are still people who can't even begin to imagine autonomous driving. And yet there are examples right here among us, used by millions of people, that are already
surprisingly close to this future. This article will cover that topic, based on a trip to the IAA Commercial Vehicles trade show in Hanover.
We're talking, of course, about the German railway system. There are still train operators here, but, as you probably already know, the actual train conductor usually doesn't have a
license to operate the locomotive. He or she isn't there either, but somewhere among the passengers. Nevertheless, he or she decides whether and when a train should run.
Train drivers' jobs could be among the first to be rationalised away. The only thing standing in the way now are safety concerns. We'll see what else there is in this chapter. In any case,
the work carried out by train operators is very limited. While someone else determines the departure time and the stops must be adhered to meticulously according to the schedule, the
speeds are also anything but freely selectable.
Please forgive us, but we're going to equate them with robots for a moment. So far, so good, but what does it actually look like in practice in a system like this, which is quite comparable
to autonomous driving. Furthermore, this is further facilitated by the fact that all key participants are employees of the system, and neither private individuals nor other persons capable of
acting independently are part of the traffic flow.
Let's assume we're taking a trip to the IAA Commercial Vehicles show in Hanover. It consists of three parts: first, getting to the IC or ICE train, which is suitable for longer distances; then the
train itself; and finally, the train from Hanover Central Station to the trade fair. Having learned from experience, it's best to avoid taking the so-called regional express train, which, while comfortable
and fast, is also very often delayed. Which is very problematic given that the transfer time is estimated at only 8 minutes.
You could solve the problem by taking an earlier train, but then there’s the S-Bahn, which stops at every little town along the way but, because it runs on its own tracks, inspires much more
confidence in its punctuality. So, in principle, you take the much slower train in order to be sure to catch the fast one for the long journey. Of course, it's often late too, but you can't count on that.
With this solid foundation, the journey begins, and you even come across an IC train that’s just starting its trip to Hanover. It makes a very clean impression, and it was worth it to skip the
seat reservation, which would have been a waste anyway if I’d missed my connection. Still, it's surprising that a full two minutes are lost right from the start.
The passengers are nice; no one is talking loudly on the phone or causing any other disturbances. It's a good thing you don't need the internet, there's no Wi-Fi on this route, and not just today.
If anything is distracting, it's the loudspeaker directly above me. Although it is now possible to transmit the faintest sounds of an engine into the cockpit, it is not possible to transmit the voices of
the individual train attendants in charge. There was only one who, although loud, kept it brief. May he be assured of my eternal gratitude.
The others either cheerfully greeted the passengers at every station on behalf of their team and/or tried to speak English, one of them even spoke it very quickly. No, you can't get used to it,
especially since they changed three times on the way back. Well, the fact that I couldn't sleep on the way there was probably largely my own fault.
They note that the delay is getting longer, but still think there’s a chance of catching the connecting train in Hanover. And then it hits you: A quarter of an hour before reaching Hannover, the
train slows down too early for the announcement of the next station, Hannover. You start to feel uncomfortable and wish for more acceleration.
At some point we come to a stop, but the announcement only mentions a delay on another train. As we continue on at a snail's pace and a train appears standing on the open track next to us, the
whole truth comes out. We are supposed to/want to take in the passengers from the stranded train. Now none of that matters anymore, because you can forget about the connecting train. So I
leaned back and got back to work. But to my slight surprise, I see that someone on the other train is doing the same thing.
So there's no way of emptying one train in, say, five minutes and filling the other one. In addition, ours is still trying to get the two doors to line up properly by driving slowly. If only I had
taken the ICE instead, because it doesn't have double-decker cars like the other train and was apparently allowed to pass. It's strange, really, that the passengers have to be rescued
out on the open track, instead of finding a way to push the entire train, along with the next one coming along, into the nearby station.
Railroad employees would probably smile at these very amateurish ideas. But the whole thing took an hour in total. This is followed by an almost imperative request for understanding. Then
come the announcements, made with great effort, about the changed connections, including those for the transferred passengers who have to try the route again. By the way, the one that applied
to me, even though it was made just 10 minutes ago, was already wrong. At Deutsche Bahn, the updates apparently aren't keeping up with the delays. Instead of at 11:27 a.m., the train left at
11:41 a.m., though I was lucky enough to find one leaving at 11:36 a.m.
The bottom line of the whole story: For a route that the computer estimated would take 3.5 hours, it took me almost 6 hours. There aren't really that many traffic jams on the highway after all. By the way, I
actually received an email from Deutsche Bahn that seems to hint at problems with the train to Hanover, though the meaning of the message only became clear to me afterward. How could this
email have been useful to me, if I had understood it right away?
What can we take away from this example as we think about the future of autonomous driving? In areas where only self-driving cars are allowed, there will be higher-level, co-decision-making authorities
that coordinate driving and, if necessary, are authorized to intervene on a large scale. If a train operator passes a red signal, the train brakes automatically, except in special cases on branch lines.
Traffic lights, even if they no longer need to display signals, will ensure that vehicles come to a complete stop at a red light.
If one of them stops at a green light, we'll have a problem just like the one with the train that broke down. The example also shows that time savings can only be realized if there are no disruptions
in areas where traffic jams used to be the norm. On the highway, it's hard to imagine a Porsche being driven aggressively amid all the self-driving cars. Japan will likely become a role model, where,
with a nationwide 100-speed limit, you have to rent a spot on a (often far-away) racetrack.
Despite its punctuality figures actually getting worse, Deutsche Bahn carries an enormous number of passengers. People seem to have come to terms with this situation, They only voice their
protest among themselves. They might think that the railroad isn't well-organized, but that it's safe. The example of Japan shows that these do not necessarily have to be opposites. And that's
how it will be with fully autonomous driving as well, slowly but surely, with the opportunity to use the time wisely.
It is surprising that, in surveys, the desire to enjoy the passing scenery ranks first, followed by conversation with fellow passengers as the second-highest priority. It's surprising, because on public
transport, the smartphone clearly dominates even in somewhat confined spaces. Could it be that the (ultimately unfulfilled) wish was the inspiration behind the idea? As long as, for example, four
people are seated in the direction of travel, an isolating activity goes unnoticed, but if they are seated facing each other . . .
We would need to know more about the world twenty or thirty years from now; then we could apply that to autonomous driving. If people are generally willing to trust complete strangers as
ride-sharing partners, then public transportation will expand into smaller communities. However, if mistrust, fear of strangers, and-for example-the threat of terrorism continue to spread,
security concerns could take precedence: many vehicles used by just a few people or even a single person, purchased by private individuals or, as before, by companies.
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